The November Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 12, 2015. The headline is “Economists Overwhelmingly Expect Fed To Raise Interest Rates in December.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
An excerpt:
The Fed has held its benchmark federal-funds rate near zero since December 2008 to bolster the U.S. economy through a financial crisis, deep recession and slow recovery. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen and other top officials have long said they expected to begin raising rates sometime in 2015 and just a few months ago, a September rate increase seemed likely. But doubts mounted amid a rise in the dollar’s value and turbulence in financial markets and the Fed decided in mid-September to delay raising rates, though several officials described it as a close call.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 13.56%; the average response in October’s survey was 15.34%.
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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2015: 2.2%
full-year 2016: 2.6%
full-year 2017: 2.5%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2015: 5.0%
December 2016: 4.7%
December 2017: 4.6%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2015: 2.38%
December 2016: 2.91%
December 2017: 3.50%
CPI:
December 2015: .8%
December 2016: 2.1%
December 2017: 2.4%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2015: $46.53
for 12/31/2016: $54.84
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2057.42 as post is written