The April Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 9, 2015. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists Think Fed Will Wait Until September to Raise Rates.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
An excerpt:
“If you look at the broad set of data that we’ve gotten in recent months, data has very much surprised to the downside,” New York Fed President William Dudley said Wednesday. “It’d be reasonable to think that the timing of the Fed’s first rate hike might be a little further off in time. I can imagine a situation where a June rate hike could still be in play…but obviously it’s a bigger hurdle because we’ve had a lot of weak data. Now you have to see sufficient data on the other side. Now the bar is a little higher.”
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 11.23%; March’s average response was 10.76%.
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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2015: 2.7%
full-year 2016: 2.7%
full-year 2017: 2.6%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2015: 5.1%
December 2016: 4.8%
December 2017: 4.8%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2015: 2.56%
December 2016: 3.29%
December 2017: 3.75%
CPI:
December 2015: 1.3%
December 2016: 2.3%
December 2017: 2.4%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2015: $58.03
for 12/31/2016: $65.94
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2103.61 as this post is written