Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The December 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of December 22, 2014:
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of December 19, 2014 (incorporating data through December 12, 2014) the WLI was at 131.1 and the WLI, Gr. was at -3.1%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of December 19, 2014, titled “ECRI Recession Watch: Update“:
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through December 13, 2014:
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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:
As per the December 18, 2014 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Again,” the LEI was at 105.5 and the CEI was at 110.7 in November.
An excerpt from the December 18 release:
“Widespread and persistent gains in the LEI point to strong underlying conditions in the U.S. economic expansion,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “The current situation, measured by the coincident economic index, has been improving steadily, with employment and industrial production making the largest contributions in November.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of December 18 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index Increased Again in November“ :
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2071.85 as this post is written