America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of November 20, 2014, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts: Year 2014 estimate: $117.96/share …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of November 13, 2014: Year 2014 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $117.51/share …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 13, 2014 update (reflecting data through November 7) is -1.137. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
For references purposes, below are two charts that show the trend in interest rates for various Treasuries, including the 3-Month, 2-Year, 5-Year, 7-Year, and 10-Year. A chart showing the interest rate trends of the last 20 years: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author) A chart …
The Philadelphia Fed Fourth Quarter 2014 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 17, 2014. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2014 : 2.2% full-year 2015: 3.0% full-year …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of November 14, 2014, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Business Conditions …
The November Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 13, 2014. The headline is “Economists’ View: Lower Inflation, Decent Growth.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two excerpts: According to the panel …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 13, 2014 update (reflecting data through November 7) is -1.137. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …