Updates Of Economic Indicators October 2014

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The October 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of October 23, 2014:


The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of October 17, 2014 (incorporating data through October 10, 2014) the WLI was at 134.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at 1.0%.

A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of October 17, 2014, titled “ECRI Recession Watch:  Update“:


The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through October 18, 2014:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the October 23, 2014 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in September,” the LEI was at 104.4 and the CEI was at 110.2 in September.

An excerpt from the October 23 release:

“The LEI picked up in September, after no change in August, and the strengths among its components have been very widespread over the past six months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “The outlook for improving employment and further income growth are expected to support the moderate expansion in the U.S economy for the remainder of the year.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of October 23 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index Increased in September“ :

Conference Board LEI


I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1950.28 as this post is written