America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of September 18, 2014: Year 2014 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $119.11/share …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The September 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of September 22, 2014: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of September 19, 2014 (incorporating data through …
In the last post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 2Q 2014“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1949:Q4 to 2014:Q2). The last value (as of September 18, 2014) …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk blog post of September 19, 2014 titled “Fed’s Q2 Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth at Record High.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“ : (click on chart to enlarge image) As …
On Wednesday, September 17, 2014 Janet Yellen gave her scheduled press conference. (video and related materials) Below are Janet Yellen’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of Chairman Yellen’s Press Conference“(preliminary)(pdf) of September …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 11, 2014 update (reflecting data through September 5) is -1.284. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Friday’s (September 12, 2014) close, which had a closing value of 13.31: Below is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
The September Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 11, 2014. The headline is “Economists See Overseas Risks as Growth Wild Card.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two excerpts: More than …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart from Doug Short’s blog post of September 12 …