Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The September 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of September 22, 2014:
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of September 19, 2014 (incorporating data through September 12, 2014) the WLI was at 135.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at 2.1%.
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through September 13, 2014:
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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:
As per the September 19, 2014 press release, the LEI was at 103.8 and the CEI was at 109.7 in August.
An excerpt from the September 19 release:
“The LEI continued to rise in August, although at a slower rate than in July,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “The LEI’s six-month growth trend has been held back slightly by lackluster contributions from housing permits and new orders for nondefense capital orders. Despite concerns about investment picking up, the economy should continue expanding at a moderate pace for the remainder of the year.”
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2006.27 as this post is written