America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of August 14, 2014: Year 2014 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $119.25/share …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 14, 2014 update (reflecting data through August 8) is -1.202. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
Yesterday (August 18, 2014) Feeding America released the “Hunger in America 2014” report. As stated: Hunger in America 2014 is the sixth and most comprehensive study undertaken. The 2014 study reveals that each year, the Feeding America network of food banks provides service to 46.5 million people in need across the United States, including 12 million children …
The Philadelphia Fed Third Quarter 2014 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on August 15, 2014. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2014 : 2.1% full-year 2015: 3.1% full-year …
I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q2 2015 management call transcript (pdf) dated May 14, 2014. (as well, there is Walmart’s press release of the Q2 results) I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices. I have previously commented on their quarterly conference call comments; these previous posts are found under …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 7, 2014 update (reflecting data through August 1) is -1.282. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
The August NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, August 12. The headline of the Press Release is “NFIB SBET: Small Business Optimism Ticks Up Slightly.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased .7 points in July to 95.7. Here are some excerpts from the Press Release that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily …
In the February 24 post, titled “Economic Expansion, Recession Or Depression?” I discussed whether the U.S. economy was then in an economic recovery, economic recession, or economic depression. In that post, I highlighted the Marist Poll results of February 5, in which 61% of respondents believe that the U.S. economy is in a recession. Recently, there have …
In the August 7, 2014 post (“Thoughts Concerning The Next Financial Crisis“) I mentioned a “widespread ‘paycheck to paycheck’” situation as well as other signs indicating widespread weak financial wherewithal. Another recently released report provides details as to the financial situation experienced by Americans. This report is the Federal Reserve report released August 7, 2014, …