Updates Of Economic Indicators August 2014

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The August 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of August 25, 2014:

cfnai_monthly_MA3 8-25-14

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of August 22, 2014 (incorporating data through August 15, 2014) the WLI was at 134.3 and the WLI, Gr. was at 2.8%.

Here is a chart of the ECRI WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s August 22, 2014 post titled “ECRI Recession Watch:  Weekly Update” :

Dshort 8-22-14 - ECRI-WLI-growth-since-2000 2.8 percent

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through August 16, 2014:

ADS Index

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the August 21, 2014 press release, the LEI was at 103.3 and the CEI was at 109.6 in July.

An excerpt from the August 21 release:

“The LEI improved sharply in July, suggesting that the economy is gaining traction and growth should continue at a strong pace for the remainder of the year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “Although housing has been one of the weakest components this year, the sharp gain in building permits helped boost the LEI in July. Financial markets and labor market conditions have also supported recent gains, but business spending indicators remain soft and their contribution marginal.”


I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1998.60 as this post is written