America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of July 17, 2014: Year 2014 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $120.07/share …
StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown. All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The July 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of July 21, 2014: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of July 18, 2014 (incorporating data through July …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
The July Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 17, 2014. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists Worry the Fed Will Keep Rates Low Too Long.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 10, 2014 update (reflecting data through July 4) is -1.351. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 61 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
On July 9, 2014, The Conference Board and PwC released the 2nd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 62, down from 63 in the first quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this July 9 Press Release include: …
In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …