On July 9, 2014, The Conference Board and PwC released the 2nd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 62, down from 63 in the first quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]
Notable excerpts from this July 9 Press Release include:
CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions was considerably less favorable. Now, 46 percent claim conditions are better compared to six months ago, down from 54 percent in the first quarter. However, business leaders’ sentiment regarding conditions in their own industries edged up slightly, with 48 percent saying conditions in their own industries have improved, compared with 47 percent last quarter.
CEOs’ expectations regarding the short-term outlook pulled back slightly in the second quarter. Currently, approximately 53 percent of business leaders anticipate economic conditions will improve over the next six months, down from 60 percent last quarter. Expectations for their own industries are less upbeat, with 46 percent of CEOs anticipating an improvement, down from 52 percent in the first quarter.
The Business Roundtable also released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 2nd Quarter of 2014 last month. Notable excerpts from the June 17 release, titled “CEOs Predict 2.3 Percent GDP Growth in 2014, Well Below Economy’s Potential” :
Results from the Business Roundtable’s second quarter 2014 CEO Economic Outlook Survey show CEOs expect 2014 gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.3 percent, representing below-normal growth compared to past economic recoveries, and well below the economy’s potential. Last quarter’s estimate for 2014 GDP growth was 2.4 percent. CEOs also expect a decline in expectations for capital expenditures, and a moderate improvement in the outlook for sales and hiring over the next six months. The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index, which is a composite of expectations for investment, sales and hiring, increased to 95.4 in the second quarter from 92.1 last quarter.
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1977.79 as this post is written