Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The April 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of April 21, 2014:
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of April 17, 2014 (incorporating data through April 11, 2014) the WLI was at 134.9 and the WLI, Gr. was at 3.9%.
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through April 12, 2014:
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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:
As per the April 21, 2014 press release, the LEI was at 100.9 and the CEI was at 108.3 in March.
An excerpt from the April 21 release:
“The LEI rose sharply again, the third consecutive monthly increase,” said Ataman Ozyildirim Economist at The Conference Board. “After a winter pause, the leading indicators are gaining momentum and economic growth is gaining traction. While the improvements were broad-based, labor market indicators and the interest rate spread largely drove the March increase, offsetting the negative contribution from building permits. And, for the first time in many months, the consumer outlook is much less negative.” “
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1868.16 as this post is written