The February Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 13, 2014. The headline is “Old Man Winter Taking a Toll, for Now, Economists Say.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet.
One excerpt I found notable:
If their forecasts miss reality, more economists think it’s because they are being too cautious rather than too optimistic about growth in 2014. On average, they give a 38% probability that real GDP will grow faster than 3%, while the odds for recession are only 12%.
Stronger demand and a tighter labor market will allow pricing power to gain some traction. Economists think consumer prices will increase by 2% across of 2014, putting the inflation rate right at the Federal Reserve’s target.
Lower unemployment and inflation at goal will allow the Fed to maintain its pace of paring bond purchases by $10 billion per meeting, say the economists.
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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2013: 2.6%
full-year 2014: 2.8%
full-year 2015: 2.9%
full-year 2016: 2.9%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2014: 6.2%
December 2015: 5.8%
December 2016: 5.5%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2014: 3.48%
December 2015: 4.00%
December 2016: 4.34%
CPI:
December 2014: 2.0%
December 2015: 2.1%
December 2016: 2.3%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2014: $95.62
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1841.01 as this post is written