Disturbing Charts (Update 11)

I find the following charts to be disturbing.   These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 49 months after the official (as per the 9-20-10 NBER announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions.  As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts (except one, as noted) are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

The following 8 charts are from the St. Louis Federal Reserve:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated 6-18-13):

EconomicGreenfield 7-2-13 HOUST_6-18-13 914

-

The Federal Deficit (last updated 4-19-13):

EconomicGreenfield 7-2-13 FYFSD_4-19-13 -1086963

-

Federal Net Outlays (last updated 4-19-13):

EconomicGreenfield 7-2-13 FYONET_4-19-13 3537127

-

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts  (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 3-28-13):

EconomicGreenfield 7-2-13 ASLPITAX_3-28-13 Percent Change From Year Ago

-

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 6-28-13):

EconomicGreenfield 7-2-13 TOTLL 6-28-13 Percent Change From Year Ago

-

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 6-28-13):

EconomicGreenfield 7-2-13 TOTBKCR 6-28-13 Percent Change From Year Ago

-

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 6-20-13):

EconomicGreenfield 7-2-13 MULT 6-20-13 .79

-

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 6-7-13):

EconomicGreenfield 7-2-13 UEMPMED 6-7-13 17.3 weeks

-

This next chart is from the CalculatedRisk.com blog post of June 7, 2013, titled “May Employment Report:  175,000 Jobs, 7.6% Unemployment Rate“ and it shows (in red) the relative length and depth of this downturn and subsequent recovery from an employment perspective:

CR 6-7-13 EmployRecMay2013

-

This last chart is of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI, and its 3-month moving average CFNAI-MA3) and it depicts broad-based economic activity (last updated 6-24-13):

cfnai_monthly_MA3 6-24-13

-

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1614.96 as this post is written

One thought on “Disturbing Charts (Update 11)

  1. Pingback: 7 Articles ETF Investors Must Read: 7/5 | ETF Database

Comments are closed.