The April Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 12, 2013. The headline is “Economists View Recent Swoon as Mere Hiccup in Growth.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet.
Notable excerpts from the article include:
The survey respondents expect growth to pick up in the second half of the year. On the whole, they see 2013 growth at 2.5%, which would be the fastest pace since 2005. Growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% for 2014 and 3% for 2015.
Even though the economy appears to be slowing in the current quarter, there are significant positives, including the housing market, that keep the odds of recession low. Economists put just a 15% chance of another downturn in the next 12 months.
As well, there are a variety of interesting questions (seen in the spreadsheet), including “Which major central bank has the most appropriate monetary policy for its home economy?” Responses were “Federal Reserve” at 51%; “European Central Bank” at 26%; “Bank of Japan” at 19%; and “Bank of England” at 8%.
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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2013: 2.5%
full-year 2014: 2.9%
full-year 2015: 3.0%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2013: 7.4%
December 2014: 6.8%
December 2015: 6.2%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2013: 2.34%
December 2014: 3.01%
December 2015: 3.57%
CPI:
December 2013: 2.1%
December 2014: 2.2%
December 2015: 2.5%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2013: $94.12
for 12/31/2014: $95.68
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1588.85 as this post is written