I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 44 months after the official (as per the 9-20-10 NBER announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.
These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.
All of these charts (except one, as noted) are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.
The following 8 charts are from the St. Louis Federal Reserve:
(click on charts to enlarge images)
Housing starts (last updated 2-20-13):
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The Federal Deficit (last updated 10-15-12):
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Federal Net Outlays (last updated 10-15-12):
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State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 2-28-13):
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Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 3-9-13):
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Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated 3-8-13):
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M1 Money Multiplier (last updated 2-28-13):
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Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated 3-8-13):
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This next chart is from the CalculatedRisk.com blog post of March 8, 2013, titled “February Employment Report: 236,000 Jobs, 7.7% Unemployment Rate” and it shows (in red) the relative length and depth of this downturn and subsequent recovery from an employment perspective:
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This last chart is of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI, and its 3-month moving average CFNAI-MA3) and it depicts broad-based economic activity (last updated 2-25-13):
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I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1550.03 as this post is written