Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – December 21, 2012 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“):

For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are.

However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.

The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, Gr. is particularly notable at this time, as ECRI publicly announced on September 30, 2011 that the U.S. was “tipping into recession,” and ECRI has reaffirmed that view since, seen most recently in these two media sources of December 7:

“Reviewing the indicators used to officially decide U.S. recession dates, it looks like the recession began around July 2012.”

Other past notable 2012 reaffirmations of the September 30, 2011 recession call by ECRI were seen (in chronological order)  on March 15 (“Why Our Recession Call Stands”) as well as various interviews and statements the week of May 6, including:

Also, subsequent to May 2012:

Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s blog post of December 21 titled “ECRI Update:  The Recession Call Is Further Undermined.”  These charts are on a weekly basis through the December 21 release, indicating data through December 14, 2012.

Here is the ECRI WLI (defined at ECRI’s glossary):

Dshort 12-21-12 ECRI-WLI 127.2

This next chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the Year-over-Year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI:

Dshort 12-21-12 ECRI-WLI-YoY 4.3 percent

This last chart depicts, on a long-term basis, the WLI, Gr.:

Dshort 12-21-12 ECRI-WLI-growth-since-1965 4.6


I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1428.44 as this post is written