Updates On Economic Indicators November 2012

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The November Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of November 26, 2012:

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 11/23/12 (incorporating data through 11/16/12) the WLI was at 125.7 and the WLI, Gr. was at 3.8%.

A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of November 23 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index:  Index Rises, Growth Diminishes” :

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, depicting 11-17-10 to 11-17-12:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the November 21 release, the LEI was at 96.0 and the CEI was at 104.8 in October.

An excerpt from the November 21 release:

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The U.S. LEI increased slightly in October, the second consecutive increase. The LEI still points to modestly expanding economic activity in the near term.  Over the last six months, improvements in the residential construction and financial components of the LEI have offset weak consumer expectations, manufacturing new orders and labor market components. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index also increased slightly in October.”

Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of November 21 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index:  ‘Increasing Slightly’” :



I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1402.29 as this post is written