Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The February Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of February 21, 2012:
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The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:
An excerpt from the February 6 update titled “Index forecasts weaker growth” :
The January update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, increasing to 2.5% in January and then slowing to 1.6% in June. While employment, housing (mostly the multifamily sector) and consumer spending are slowly recovering, concerns about the Eurozone and world growth continue.
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of 2/17/12 the WLI was at 123.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at -3.7%.
A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of February 17 titled “ECRI Controversial Recession Call: Fifth Consecutive Improvement in the Growth Index” :
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The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):
The Indicator as of January 9 was at 41.9, as seen below:
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting 2-11-10 to 2-11-12:
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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:
As per the February 17 release, the LEI was at 94.9 and the CEI was at 103.5 in January.
An excerpt from the February 17 release:
Added Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “Recent data reflect an economy that started the year on a positive note. The CEI shows some small signs of economic strengthening in the fourth quarter and continued to point in this direction in January. The LEI suggests these conditions will continue and could possibly even pick up this spring and summer.”
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1362.12 as this post is written