Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The July Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of July 25, 2011:
An excerpt from the June 22 Press Release, titled “Index forecasts stronger growth this fall” :
The June update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, remaining below 3% through the summer and then gaining strength in October and November with 3.3%-3.4% growth rates. Temporary automotive supply disruptions resulting from the Japan earthquake plus high energy and food prices are the main reasons for the slowdown. A return to stronger growth is expected in the fall as automotive supply levels return to normal, businesses increase equipment spending, export growth remains strong and employment slowly improves. The weak housing market and concerns about European debt remain drags on the recovery.
As of 7/15/11 the WLI was at 127.5 and the WLI, Gr. was at 1.7%. A chart of the growth rates of the Weekly Leading and Weekly Coincident Indexes:
The Indicator as of June 30 was at 44.0, as seen below:
Here is the latest chart, depicting 7-16-09 to 7-16-11:
As per the July 21 release, the LEI was at 115.3 and the CEI was at 102.9 in June.
An excerpt from the July 21 Press Release:
Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board:
“The U.S. LEI continued to increase in June, but the strengths among the leading indicators have been balanced with the weaknesses in recent months. The Coincident Economic Index, a monthly measure of current economic activity, continued to increase slowly. The leading indicators point to slowly expanding economic activity in the coming months.”
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1336.70 as this post is written