As those familiar with this blog know, I am very concerned about the vulnerability of the U.S. Dollar to a substantial decline. I have written extensively about this situation.
On November 12, Macroeconomic Advisers had a blog post from Larry Meyer that discussed monetary policy (focused on QE2) and the U.S. Dollar. While I don’t agree with various parts of this blog post, I nonetheless think it is noteworthy to see what a (very) prominent economic consulting firm has to say on the issue.
Here are some excerpts from that November 12 post:
How does the exchange rate affect monetary policy? How will the foreign backlash affect monetary policy going forward?
- We have not changed our firmly-held view that the FOMC has no dollar policy; it has no target for the dollar, just as it has no target for equity valuations. Dollar policy is the realm of the Treasury. The foreign backlash will not dissuade the Committee from pursuing what it sees as appropriate policy.
- For the most part, the dollar has two roles with respect to monetary policy: First, it is part of the transmission mechanism, part of how monetary policy affects the economy. Second, to the extent that the dollar moves independently of monetary policy, it is like any other variable: The FOMC takes actual and projected changes in exchange rates into account in its forecast and responds accordingly.
- There are two circumstances (discussed below) under which the dollar would take more of a center stage in FOMC deliberations: (i) a “free fall” in the dollar and (ii) a tighter and more intense link between the dollar and commodity prices in a context of a faster pass-through from commodity prices to long-term inflation expectations and core inflation.
Does the FOMC ever worry about the dollar? Yes, under two circumstances:
- A Dollar Collapse: If the dollar were to go into “free fall” (we will know it when we see it), the FOMC would face an enormous challenge because that would be catastrophic for the U.S. and foreign economies alike. There would be chaos in financial markets around the world. This is a nightmare scenario for the Fed, but a tail risk. Here, we expect that the FOMC would have to be part of the policy response to stabilize the dollar. Free fall, however, is much more likely as a result of continued fiscal irresponsibility in the U.S.
- The Dollar-Commodities-Inflation Nexus: The FOMC likely worries about the recent seemingly more intense relationship between the dollar and commodity prices. The consequences depend on the degree to which commodity prices are passed through to core inflation. In any case, a sharp and persistent rise in commodity prices could raise concern about an unhinging of long-term inflation expectations, which, in turn, could affect monetary policy. Today, however, the main driver of rising commodity prices, we believe, is supply and demand, especially soaring demand by Asian economies.
A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here
SPX at 1199.21 as this post is written