Alan Blinder and Mark Zandi released a paper dated July 27 titled “How The Great Recession Was Brought To An End.” (pdf)
From the report, page 1: “In this paper, we use the Moody’s Analytics model of the U.S. economy—adjusted to accommodate some recent financial-market policies—to simulate the macroeconomic effects of the government’s total policy response. We find that its effects on real GDP, jobs, and inflation are huge, and probably averted what could have been called Great Depression 2.0. For example, we estimate that, without the government’s response, GDP in 2010 would be about 11.5% lower, payroll employment would be less by some 8½ million jobs, and the nation would now be experiencing deflation.”
my comments: Needless to say, I don’t agree with many aspects of the report’s conclusions, focus and methodologies.
Much of my thoughts on intervention efforts, which includes stimulus, can be found under the “Intervention” category.
The main reason I highlight this report is for reference purposes.
I think the report will prove highly memorable, an iconic piece of the period.
back to <home>
SPX at 1101.60 as this post is written