Updates On Economic Indicators

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The June Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of June 28, 2010: The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt …

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Is This A Depression?

Although almost everyone believes we are in an economic recovery, it behooves us to at least consider whether instead we are in a continuing Depression, as I have previously written.  Beginning on June 22, 2009, I wrote a series of four blog posts that examined various aspects of our economic situation and whether we were …

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Raghuram Rajan Interview – Noteworthy Comment

A June 17 2010 Raghuram Rajan interview contained several interesting viewpoints. While I don’t necessarily agree with what he says in this interview, I found it to be well worth reading. Of particular note was the following comment, which I found provocative – if not very much so – and thought-provoking, as its implications, if …

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MacroMarkets June 2010 Home Price Expectations Survey

On Wednesday (June 23) MacroMarkets released its June Home Price Expectations Survey results. Here is the Press Release (pdf); the accompanying chart is seen below: As one can see from the above chart, the expectation is that not only has the residential real estate market hit a “bottom” as far as pricing; but that steady …

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Macroeconomic Advisers On Possibility Of Double Dip

I found this June 10 blog post, titled “The Chances of a ‘Double-Dip’ are Essentially Nil” by Macroeconomic Advisers to be notable. Of course, I am not in agreement with those that believe any material further economic weakness will be avoided.  However, many economists feel differently; as I have noted in the post of June …

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ECRI On Frequency Of Recessions

I recently came across a notable excerpt in ECRI’s “U.S. Cyclical Outlook” of December 2009 (pdf): “The bottom line is that long expansions are needed after severe recessions to undo the damage.  After the 1932-33 depression, not even four years of expansion were quite enough, despite 10% annual GNP growth.  This time trend growth is …

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Larry Summers On The Economy

Saturday’s (June 19) Boston Globe contained an interview with Larry Summers on the state of the economy. I found the phrasing in a couple of his statements, as seen below, notable: “Summers, the former Harvard University president and Treasury secretary under President Clinton, presented a cautious, measured view of economic conditions. For example, after expressing …

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S&P500 Price Projections

The June 9, 2010  Livingston Survey (pdf) contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast.  It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: June 30, 2010   1115.0 Dec. 31, 2010    1187.6 June 30, 2011   1243.5 Dec. 30, 2011    1280.0 These figures represent the median value across the 40 forecasters on the survey’s panel. …

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ECRI WLI Interpretation & Commentary

The recent steep fall in the ECRI WLI has been widely commented upon. I’ve recently run across two items, an article and an interview, that I think are very notable with regard to interpreting the WLI. The first is an article ( “Is ECRI Growth Rate Index Signaling A Double Dip?”) that discusses the predictive …

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