Here are some indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:
an excerpt dated 2/24: “The February update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, above 4% in January through April followed by slower but solid growth in May through July. The slower growth is expected as inventory boosts slow and the government’s monetary and fiscal stimulus programs end.”
The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
an excerpt dated March 12: “(Reuters) – A gauge of future U.S. economic growth rose slightly in the latest week while its yearly growth index continued to fall to a 31-week low, upholding expectations the economy will likely decelerate starting mid-year, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index was 130.6 for the week ended March 5, up from 129.8 the previous week.”
Fortune’s Big Picture Index:
-I was unable to obtain updated values for this index-
The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator)
This indicator was at 38.1 as of March 1; as seen on the chart, this index seems to be holding at a relatively steady level since November.
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index
Here is the latest chart (updated as of March 6) of this indicator:
The Conference Board LEI (Leading Economic Index) and CEI (Coincident Economic Index)
Per a news release of February 18, the January LEI was at 107.4 and the January CEI was at 100.1. There exists a notable gap between these two measures.
“New Financial Conditions Index”
I had a post of this index on Wednesday, which can be found here:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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SPX at 1149.99 as this post is written